Nellie.
How she works Pricing Proof

How we know she recovered it.

Every number on this site traces back to this page. Nellie is paid a share of what she recovers, so the honest question is: recovered compared to what? Here is the exact answer, in the order a sceptical finance person would ask it.

If we cannot prove a sale would not have happened without her, we do not count it and we do not bill for it.

01

The holdout group

When Nellie starts at your store, we randomly withhold a slice of eligible shoppers – normally 10% – from every conversation she would otherwise have. They shop your store exactly as before. They never hear from her.

The split is drawn per shopper, not per cart, so nobody drifts between groups mid-relationship. It is fixed before she sends anything, and we cannot move someone after the fact.

Treated · 90%

Nellie texts them. Some reply, some buy, some ask her to stop.

Holdout · 10%

Silence. Whatever they buy anyway is your baseline – the sales you were always going to get.

02

The lift calculation

We compare revenue per eligible shopper in each group over the same window, then scale the difference across the treated group. The gap is incremental revenue – what only exists because she spoke to someone.

revenue per shopper, treated  =  T
revenue per shopper, holdout  =  H
recovered  =  (T − H) × treated shoppers

Deliberately boring arithmetic. No attribution windows, no last-click, no model deciding who deserves credit – just two groups and a subtraction.

03

What we take back out

Recovered revenue is net, not gross. Four deductions, applied before anything is invoiced:

RefundsIf the order comes back, it leaves the ledger and the invoice with it – even months later.
CancellationsAnything cancelled before dispatch never counted in the first place.
Discounts she gaveIf she offered anything to close it, we measure what you actually received.
Shipping & taxExcluded. She is paid on merchandise revenue only.
04

When we say we don't know

A holdout only tells you something once enough people have passed through it. In a store's first weeks the gap between groups is often smaller than ordinary week-to-week noise, and we will say so rather than dress it up.

Until a result clears that bar, your statement shows it as provisional and we bill on the conservative end. We would rather under-claim early than publish a number that falls apart later.

05

What you can audit yourself

Your monthly statement lists every conversation, which group each shopper was in, the orders on both sides, and the arithmetic above with your own figures. You can rebuild the total in a spreadsheet from your Shopify export – and we would like you to.

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